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WAVES.FOREX – THE CASE OF 1.3 EUR DOLLAR

Mukul Pal · June 25, 2009

WAVES.FOREX.250609
forex250609
We have reached an internal inflexion between the forex team. When an alternate count starts to take shape the reader should realize that we are starting looking at a market surprise.
Though the preferred view suggest that the DOLLAR 1.4 should hold and we should continue to push lower to 1.3, there is a case which suggests that the pair might surprise and push to near 1.5 levels.
How plausible is the alternate scenario? Can we see through the fractal and intermarket maze? Intermarket meaning to take cues from various currencies around the world to understand how strong is our preferred strengthening view.
A careful look and one can see the preferred view of INR, LEI, YEN, CAD. One side is the dollar and other side a host of other currencies. Preferred view getting negated on DOLLAR would mean that we are negating our preferred view on all the other currencies. Our view on INR, LEI (RON), CAD, YEN suggests a likely upside from here. This means that DOLLAR strengthening preferred view should hold. There is no upmove on EUR USD till we have a reversal on rest of the pairs.
This is why alternate EXPANDED FLAT (SLIDE 5, 6) still remains a low probability scenario for us. We will keep a close eye on the INFLEXIONS. We have carried some primary (multi year) anticipated and happened updates on LEI (RON) and INR. As we reach key inflexion points, understanding the larger picture becomes more important. The larger view suggests a final impending weakness in emerging market currencies like INR and LEI (Romania). This might just seal the fate for DOLLAR 1.3
Enjoy the latest WAVES.FOREX.

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WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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