Waves.Forex – The Dollar Rieki

Just like any other asset, dollar outperforms and underperforms across time frames. The oscillations happen from an intra day to multi decade time frame. We created the performance cycle to map these spectrums of performance cyclicality. The illustration above is the performance cycles also called as Rieki (Japanese for performance).
Dollar index movement maps the Rieki in terms of intermediate performance. Dollar index has made 3 performance cycles from Dec 2009. All of them were captured by Rieki, as it oscillated in a similar fashion identifying bottoms of Jan, Mar and now Jun 2010. Since there is always a larger time unfolding, it will be overconfident to assume that the clock work will continue. But as of now, the dollar index cycles have bottomed. Bottoming process could take a while and could extend more than a few trading sessions.
There is another reason for this special update on Forex. Price structure on GBPUSD have broken above key inflexion levels at 1,5. A move above respective levels could take us up to 1.7. A similar structure could happen on EURUSD with move up to 1.3. Even momentum indicators and key reversal bars suggest the both GBPUSD and EURUSD might strengthen ahead. Japanese Yen also broke down below key true trendline support suggesting strengthening. On the other side we have both Canadian dollar and Australian dollar weakening like commodities suggesting dollar has more strengthening to go. The respective conflict in signals and what performance cycles suggest should clarify ahead. The reader should keep in mind that all said and done price confirmation is the most important signal.
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Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=