The Yen Rieki

When around May 2010, JPY broke the true red trendline and challenged our preferred corrective expectation up till 100, we pulled the plug and talked about 85 and new lows. We are almost there. New lows might sound historical news and a feat which could not have been seen in time. But this is what we said on 17 Jan 2007 “Waking up to Gung-Ho: The USD/YEN ratio line broke the 22 year trend suggesting YEN is ready to move out of inaction and head to potentially below 80 (33% strengthening) for many years.”
This was a multi Anticipated and happened case proving long term predictability is also linked with market patterns. Now that that prices are near all time lows, it would be interesting to see how Intermediate period Rieki (performance cycles) reinforces or counters the current intermediate and minor trend. The performance cycle (illustration) pinpointed many strengthening and weakening trends on the currency.
JPY like other eight pairs we track on numeric ranking are suggesting a strengthening dollar position. This means that there is positive seasonality for dollar rather than for JPY. Now the more interesting question is whether the positive seasonality for dollar would come in before JPY breaks all time low or before that.
Dollar strengthening is set to continue. EUR and GBP found minor support as expected and saw a bounce. However the intermediate trend remains down. JPY preferred looks like an ending formation, but we won’t rule out a new all time low. With EUR, GBP and CHF about to enter wave 3 of 3/C the pairs could see a sharp fall this week. CAD also saw a sharp fall this week. A breach below the neckline could see the fall accelerate further.
Enjoy the latest Waves Forex.

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=
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