The skyrocket crackle

First it was Armajaro buying 7% of cocoa market, then it was Bloomberg news about rallying Sugar as ships clogged Brazil ports and then we had wheat surge backed by worst 100 year drought.
We at Orpheus are looking at Inflationary era ahead and disagree with the idea that low interest rate era is here to stay. Inflationary times are about rising Agro prices. But as an investor or money manager you are concerned about a month, a quarter or a year or maybe few years. If you have deep pockets like Anthony Ward, we agree agro is a good bet to hold. But if you concerned about how your portfolio looks end of Q3, you really can’t trade on such news. The world is coming to an end since 1999 and there are people still waiting for more than a decade for it to all end. You have a choice to really go spiritual and stop worrying about markets, but if you are in the markets you can’t really trade on news that does not come with an expiration or validity on them.
Coffee, Sugar, Wheat are the top ranking assets in the Alpha Global. Price extremes attract attention and hence are widely cited. It is tough to find three buy stories on Gold in 1999-2000. Now we don’t even have to count ‘buy gold’ stories from 2008 till date. The world gold council CEO Aram Shishmanian was interviewed by economist. He talked about supply and demand of gold and how gold remained positive. Aram how much patience are you expecting from the gold bulls? The precious metal delivered 20% in 30 months. We talked about ‘Fools gold’ and ‘The gold short’ while remaining in minority. News accountability was always low and supply demand is tough to quantify with time.  If you don’t want to keep holding something uncomfortably for a long time, you should better look at news with a pinch of numeric ranking reality.
The coffee excitement did not pan out as expected. As anticipated the worst performer (no news generator) Zinc outperformed Coffee (the news generator). The Coffee-Zinc Rieki continues to point to a multi week Zinc outperformance against Coffee. Our long Euro – short dollar pair delivered 16% against dollar (the news generator).