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The Rupee Connection

Mukul Pal · November 23, 2011


Why is Rupee so important for NIFTY investors? Because according to intermarket analysis, currency strengthening should be accompanied by Equity Index strengthening. This means, if RUPEE strengthens Nifty Strengthens and vice versa. Is this a rule? There are no rules in market, just guidelines.
So did it work? This is what we said on 25 Dec 2010. “Markets have enough capability to burn time in stagnation or weakness. The ongoing complex corrective could just persist till H1 2011. What does this tell us about equity? This tells us that Nifty VIX broad basing formation should not be ignored as equity could surprise early 2011. And since we are in larger complex corrective in Indian equity also, performance cycles (relative performance) should be used to reduce out of overstretched sectors and accumulate into best potential outperformers.”
We did a follow up on Rupee on Sep 2011. This is what we said then, “Now if we should project these ratios in time INR could weaken against the USD till Dec 2011 or till Dec 2013 to attain this proportion.”
Now that we have reached Dec 2012, it makes sense to look at INR and extend it’s connection to Indian equity. The current report looks at the NIFTY-INR connection. Is the market in an INR panic?
To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.
Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.
Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

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