The Gold alternate

Starting the 24 OCT low on Gold at 680, we have been illustrating a corrective up scenario. And it was only from 15 DEC that we started highlighting the possibility of a push up till 900-920 levels. We also mentioned that these are the final true trendline resistance levels, above which our preferred negative view stands challenged. Though, we did project extending impulses up from 820 triangles till 880 (WAVES.GOLD.151208), we have not given you the BUY confidence all this while, starting 830 dollars (25 NOV). We remained with an unchanged DOWN BUT BOTTOMING view. We continued to look at the upmove, as a corrective and countertrend structure. Now that prices head to key inflexion levels, we review both our PREFERRED and ALTERNATE Intermediate scenarios on GOLD to see how GOLD might move in 2009.
The 30 year GOLD cycle is in the first decade. The decade cycle still seems early to have made a multi year low. This is why our PREFERRED view continued to look lower well into Q1 2009. But prices have failed to push lower and have rather pushed up above near key levels. CYCLE II waves are generally sharper and retrace more than what GOLD prices have retraced till now. Moreover, intermediate RSI (SLIDE 3) not only failed to non confirm at a top, but is also overreactive. We also have GOLD India spot and futures (SLIDE 8), which look more like sideways 4 wave combinations rather than a classic II wave down.
This indicates that GOLD might push up higher in a last 5 PRIMARY before really turning down in CYCLE II till 560 levels. We have also carried inverted GOLD prices (SLIDE 6), which also point till 900 and 920 levels. The alternate view above 900-920 projects a push till 1,000. For the global economy, this means further choppy, potentially negative and polarized action atleast for few more months before Gold makes a high in 2009.
This view also looks plausible both from decade cycle view, and also from the metals complex view, which seem to be in for an intermediate rise. TISCO (INDIA), Nikkei Iron and Steel Index, Hindustan Aluminum, Platinum, Alcoa, Ispat, Copper Spot and PCU are still in positive territory. The only caution is the gapping up move on Silver (SLIDE 10) and the base metal price structures, which still lack an impulsive look and look like ongoing corrective bounce backs. Above 900-920 Gold, our PREFERRED negative view is off and we shift to our ALTERNATE GOLD VIEW. The latest WAVES.GOLD market letter also carries ANTICIPATED and HAPPENED cases on ALCOA, GOLD, SILVER, STEEL and PLATINUM.
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009
Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD
WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.
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