THE FIRST FIVE – PART II

We wrote about the first five on 3 NOV (THE FIRST FIVE). The BETFI is up 50% for month to date and most of the stocks and indices have registered gains. Prices have also hit initial targets on BETFI (RIGHT). Though prices could continue to extend higher, but markets have this innate ability to not let everybody ride. Only the patient, the cautious and the skilled can do it.
Though we don’t have MINOR exhaustion signals yet, the first five impulse seems to complete. After this market could retrace a part of the gains, regroup and consolidate again. We also observed that unlike many Asian emerging markets, ROMANIAN fractal structures are more clear. This means two things. One that the exaggerated collapses may lead to sustained bounces for multiple months and second that Romanian market structures are loosely linked with other emerging markets like INDIA.
Overall, the accumulation story remains valid. Any dip now should not be too deep. A deep retracement will put us on the back foot again. We don’t think that should happen. But we will take it a step at a time. As of now the first MINOR UP seems completing so some exhaustion or supply pressure might not be too far up.
The current issue of WAVES.ROM carries multiple ANTICIPATED and HAPPENED cases along with the regular tracker of UP-DOWN TREND perspectives on most of the BET majors, BVB INDICES, SIFs and their futures.
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THE FIRST FIVE AND 100% UPMOVE
3 NOV 2008
What is a five? A five wave structure defines the human impulse across time frames, one min to multiple decades, the fractal structure is the same. What is a three? Three waves are counter trend structures and just like five waves they manifest across time frames. Three waves are generally overlapping structures. Fives are part of threes and three are part of fives. Just because it all looks so complex, fractal structures remain unpopular and accurate at the same time.
Differentiating a five from a three and understanding how the two structures mesh with each other across time frames, is the visual skill needed to see through the maze. For example now, we have five wave structures emanating from the base for many blue chips and for a few indices like BETC (RIGHT). What does this mean? This means that even if BETFI takes a few more trading sessions, our ANTICIPATED UP view remains on solid grounds. And all dips remain accumulation dips. One should keep in mind that broad base rallies from key bottoms are rare. Markets will move up selectively, non confirming one up trend on an asset from another. This is what is happening now. A section of the market is still bottoming while the other has shown resilience and continues to move up. We talked about TEL, TGN, BRD and SNP. The trackers below remain positive on the same.
About 100% moves? Such subdued prices are not just about extreme sentiments but also about subdued prices. This is why we had a 100% move up after the great depression lows in 1932 on DOW. BETFI basing near 10,000 gives similar opportunities. We are looking at 30%, 100% and 200% gains respectively from turn points, which should arrive soon. About OCT lows? As we said, a section of the market has already bottomed and moving up and OCT lows are already in.
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ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH
WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.
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