The Complex Corrective

Multi year Elliott counts have worked for almost 80 years. However, over this period the number of high priests practicing Elliott has also increased. Earlier statistics suggested that for every 10 people practicing DOW theory there was one practicing Elliott. I will not be surprised that the ratio has inverted i.e. for every 1 technician practicing DOW theory there are 10 practicing Elliott. The point I am making here is that popularity of the tool has made it blunt. Above this number of stock market participants are still at historical highs. This means a lot of emotion, a lot of confusion (sideways)  and a lot of volatility. In conclusion, we are living the times of a complex corrective.
We at Orpheus are not bears. We have reiterated our positive view clearly and repeatedly. And we don’t make any claims of making forecasts either. Because if buying worst performers can help us deliver on an absolute and relative basis, we rather stick to this simple approach. However, once in while studying conventional patterns can be useful.
Here we have illustrated the Nifty. The Nifty has completed the 4 circle primary. There is alternation between the 2 primary (sideways) and 4 primary (sharp). The final fifth we think is  a complex corrective (ending expanding or converging diagonal) with a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. The very fact that the ongoing B has not fallen below 0.382 Fibonacci retracement suggests that this preferred view is alive. Nifty @ 8,000 remains a minimum first target for us. After that the log channel indicates that prices could stretch even higher.  We repeat  Elliott counts are subjective and the best strategy is still to buy the worst losers.

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Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.
Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities
Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.