Show me the "money"

 
If the most important indicator in measuring and weighing market structure is price confirmation then there is nothing more important than a positive price breakout. Whether we have had the Jan effect (the first 5 day positive price effect) or not, the monthly close is suggesting some conspicuous price confirmations. As Indices around the world are breaking some significant true trendlines. For example the DOW 30. It has broken a significant true trendline of five years. We mentioned prior on 4 Dec in the DOW Illusion – II
“Did you know that DOW is 16% from an all time high, which it has not distinctly broken in 12 years. The basic rule of market structure suggests that the more a resistance is tested, the more likely it’s to break. Any 16% upside gives DOW a chance to test the 12 year resistance. How large is a 16% move?
This is what seems to happen now. This can of course be a false breakout. But how many false breakouts do you need? World Index, Russell 1000 broad index, Nasdaq 100, ISE home builders, Dow transports, and IYE real estate. True trendline breaks are all over the place. We need a failure across the board for the various sector indices to fail here and markets to come down. Well like I (Dan’s Elliott View is contrary to my conventional view) said, the bears are asking the bulls for the price confirmation or “show me the money”. Unfortunately “money” (price confirmation) is staring the bears in their face suggesting them to review their stand.
From the Indian perspective, the price confirmations are absent. You can’t expect India to lead everything. The whole idea of leadership is cyclical. Assets outperform and underperform their global peers cyclically. It’s time for India to lag hence no price confirmation. But if you observe closely all of CNXIT, BSE500, Sensex, CNX100, BSEAUTO, BSEPOWER are testing multi month resistances. A break would set the Indian Bull free to perform in 2012 (despite the odds). At the end of the day a few months or a 12 month Bull can happen in a large 90 year bottoming cycle. We as investors just need to focus on conserving portfolios while trying for double digit annual returns. The only way to do this is to focus on the worst losers and price breakout at the same time. This report carries some of the potential best long ideas in CNX100 components.
Let’s see, price confirmation prevails or Elliott Preferred topping 2 wave structures.

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Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.
Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities
Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.