"September to November"

September to November are seasonally negative periods which generally see a top in September and a low in Oct or November. November is also a key month for the Yale Hirsch Cycle, which suggests to buy in November till April. In this update we have looked at Sep to Nov periods for global assets.
The respective time seasonality is not a rule but has worked on many occasions. In case of Dow the Sep-Nov seasonality is the last chance for a dip in 2012. If the correction should come, it should now. Moreover, the prices are near a key resistance.
Above this the price structures coming till here are not very strong to sustain a Sep to Nov sellers onslaught. Indian Sensex has move up but is still struggling at 18,000 levels. Now as prices head into seasonal low period, prices can easily dip from current levels.
The Sep to Nov period has not made much difference between other assets, be it gold, natural gas or currencies. The seasonality effected every asset class, so much so that we need to be sure with more price confirmation before we buy Gold or do bottom picking in Natural Gas.
Emerging markets and MSCI Asia ex Japan look more negative and prone to a fall during this period.

For more such interesting updates visit the Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.


Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal in March 2009. Ionut is a professor of Corporate Finance at Babes -Bolyai University and a post doctorate fellow at the Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.
The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor – Econohistory