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SENSEX 30 update

Mukul Pal · September 20, 2012

Summary
We have 14 running total positive (both Jiseki and price signal positive), 6 running total negative (both Jiseki and price signal negative) and rest neutral (both Jiseki and price signal non-confirming).
Positive
There are 14 components that are positive on both price and Jiseki cycle.
All these components are positive for a quarter except TCS and Tata Power. Markets attributed the short term fall in TCS prices to slow earning concerns for the current quarter. However, TCS is still positive for the month. The short term fall in TCS are challenging its total positive signal. We will keep a close eye on the stock price. Tata Power faces government action for a coal block in Jharkhand led to a concern. How this short term news affects our running total positive signal for the stock remains to be seen.
Sun Pharma, Maruti, DLF, Larson & Toubro and Infosys changed to total positive (both Jiseki and price signal positive) from the last update. Larsen & Toubro broke the anticipated resistance of 1470.2 and is now trading at 1551.65. Infosys is showing a positive trend as Bank of America Merrill Lynch has upgraded the stock rating from neutral to buy.
Negative
There are 6 components that are negative on both price and Jiseki cycle. These are SBI, Bharti, Hindalco, Jindal Steel, Hero MotoCorp and Tata Steel. Bharti is down 11% for the signal holding period of 60 days.
Barring Hero MotoCorp and SBI all the other stocks are negative for the quarter. Though the market wire is attributing the short term positive returns in Hero MotoCorp to its technology alliance with the Italian firm Engines Engineering, the Jiseki and price signal continues to be total negative.
A similar conflict can be seen on SBI, whose move to cut the base rate by 25 basis points led to a short term positive sentiments. However, it remains to be seen how soon the total negative signal changes for the stock.
Non Confirming Signals
This leaves us with 10 components that have a non-confirmation between price and Jiseki cycle filters.
Group Dynamics
Group dynamics is a snapshot for the complete group. Here as you can see most of the components are below 50% ranking suggesting that when it comes to Sensex components, most of have become undervalued compared to the BSE 500 universe of stocks. The right hand pie chart illustrates whether the ranking performance cycles are pointing up and are postive or vice versa. In this pie chart barring 14, all the other components are positive.
Running SENSEX 30
This is a running table for the SENSEX 30 stocks, which explains how many stocks are in a price positive trend and how many are in a Jiseki Cycle positive trend. We have also added a proprietary rankings for the various stocks. The strongest component is 30 and the weakest is 1

 

Mean Reversion Index in Market Efficiency Journal
The September Quarter

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