Romanian Sentiment Review: Back to May HIGHS

The anticipated negative case on BETFI happened. This is what we said in 13 Oct RSR
“Over the 6 months the RSR readings are still near or at positive extremes. We continue to look for lower prices in Oct. Whether it’s just a few weeks or negativity till end of year is tough to say now.”
The drop on BETFI was a sizeable 25%. Now that we are back to MAY highs and sentiment readings are no more extremely bullish, it is time to review.
Though BETFI cracked, the market movement remains polarized. BETC, BET, BETXT and BETNG dropped marginally. The A-D line (the sentiment indicator we illustrated last time) remains negative. A break here on the red trend line support will confirm a breakdown on the breadth indicator, suggesting further negativity than otherwise.
On one side market structure remains weak, while on the other side we have sentiment readings that have crashed. This makes for a tough interpretation. Short term (few trading days, maybe be a few weeks) markets remain oversold and nearing a sentiment bottom, while on the intermediate term (a month or two) negativity can not be considered over.
Immediate TIME CYCLES continue to point lower to a break at BETFI 20,000. Below that, how low we can go, is a tough call. Our preferred view suggests that the BULL MARKET is intact and any dips back to 15,000 is time to buy. End of November market situations should be clearer. Enjoy the latest RSR.
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A SENTIMENT INDEX reading can assist to measure these extremities in mood and potential market turns. Survey respondents will not only benefit from the interpretation and indicator readings but also will be invited for regular training seminars on sentiment indicators and provided relevant literature. Orpheus CAPITALS and Prognosis.ro are two independent research companies publishing the ROMANIAN SENTIMENT REVIEW. RSR is a sentiment index based on the survey of market players. The respondents are queried on a host of areas including time frame of expectations, bullish and bearish bias and sectoral preferences. The data is then analysed to create various sentiment indices. The readings of the various indices explains the market sentiment and market direction. We also furnish the sentiment data on a periodical basis to financial institutions, fund managers and brokers for further research and investment.
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