Rieki vs. Numeric Ranking

Rieki is another name for performance cycles. Rieki illustrate the performance of an asset against it’s benchmark. The illustrated chart illustrates how Indian Rupee performance varied compared to the dollar index. The INR Rieki is falling suggesting that INR has more impending weakness against dollar.
The Rieki oscillator is different from Numeric Ranking histograms. The histogram (illustrated) is a snapshot of all the nine pairs we track against the dollar.  Though INR is the worst in the snapshot making it the best performer, the Rieki cycle has not bottomed yet and INR could remain at the bottom for a while in absolute rankings.
Choosing a base currency for our global portfolio allocation is a challenge. Should be keep the base currency as EUR, GBP, or CAD? We looked at performance cycles on EUR vs. GBP vs. CAD vs. GBP and it seems EUR is the best of the bunch still and should continue to strengthen against dollar. Any dips on EUR USD should be short-lived and lead to higher levels till 1.35. A break at 1.27 would need review.
Another conflict that we should resolving coming week is between AUD and CAD. Either CAD is breaking out of it’s reverse potential Head and Shoulder formation or AUD is headed for a new high negating our preferred exhaustion view. What happens on the respective currencies also suggest what’s the direction of commodities ahead. Our preferred view suggests a negative case on commodities i.e. a topping case on AUD and a bottoming case on CAD. In any case get ready for a more than 10% move.
Rieki for JPY suggests that the bottoming case holds for YEN USD. We continue to look at a completing formation here and a reversal on the pair.  There are different ways to look at currencies and currency Indices. Alpha Global will carry indices while Waves. Forex will carry currency Rieki cycles.
Enjoy the special extended issue of Waves Forex.

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=
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