Retaining Nifty target of 8,000 for this year

The amplitude is the measurement of change between two extreme values. To measure the size of change in Nifty ( Sensex) over 2013 is an amplitude exercise. Could Nifty deliver a stellar performance this year? It is tough to measure outliers. To understand how high a rocket can go or how large a fire blast it makes in the sky is rocket science.
For us earthquakes and stock markets express a similar character, as they both are a part of the natural phenomenon. Moreover, sticking out your neck for an annual Sensex forecast is not tricky. A good one can get you 15 minutes of fame or vice versa infame. Why 15 minutes? Because market participants are short sighted and more interested in the January effect rather than the decade effect. And this myopic approach cannot be sorted out because humans suffer from hyperbolic discounting. We are more concerned about today than tomorrow.
So, even if we had clocks telling us about market timing, what’s happening tomorrow or a few months ahead would be more exciting than what is happening from 2011 till 2019. But, timing still does not solve the problem. Determining the quality (amplitude) of correction or growth would remain a problem. We have mentioned Benner cycle clock on prior occasions.
Benner was one of the many reasons we reinforced our positive forecast for 2011. One reason why Benner got it right was because his dataset was built around an annual average of high and low prices. Symmetry is another reason why his clock still works.
Geometry, symmetry and proportion can give insights into amplitude. Dow, Elliottand many other technicians have compared bull and bear market sizes (proportion), to forecast the large trend ahead. If you look at the Dow 30 geometry, the 1929 high was unwound in 1945 (after 15 years). While the 1987 high was unwound in 1994 (after six years). Now after moving sideways for 10 years (2000-2012) any new Dow 30 trend could be at least a third of the size.
To read the complete article visit Business Standard