REDEFINING SEASONAL WEAKNESS

WAVES.GLOBAL 06 Nov 2008 we said that Nov lows should hold. It is three months since then, DOW is still above respective lows at 7,500. Market does not fall under extreme negativity conditions and it does not rise despite all extreme optimism sometime. This is what extremities are about. A trader selling in NOV could have avoided unwanted short positions that could have brought major losses or maybe no gain. Markets are falling from July 2007 – JAN 2008 globally and though our YALE HIRSCH cycle paused the negativity for some time, markets have not bounced back as we expected. This means that classic seasonality of the NOV – APR period stands challenged. It was building on this market inability to move higher that we mentioned about the potential negation of our positive expectations in a weeks time.
We have reviewed the seasonality and it seems that market negativity could continue till end of February or early March. NIKKEI held above anticipated supports, but successive retesting suggests that the Nikkei might also give in to the FEB end negative seasonality. We have carried TIME OSCILLATORS on DOW, BVSP, NIKKEI, S&P, SENSEX, DAX and FTSE and each one of them suggests cycle lows around early March before any sustained bounce back.
Talking about bounce back after all negative talk might look strange. But looking at the composite of global indices around the world one can see more of a broad equity basing rather than distribution. We have carried the sharp anticipated C wave up move on SHANGHAI. This upmove is a classic emerging market non confirmation against the developed market Indices, which suggest that any legs lower should be final at least on a few emerging market indices. We also have some anticipated and happened cases on BVSP, RTS and DAX.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.GLOBAL.
WAVES.GLOBAL – WAVES.GLB is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product covers all the DOW 30 stocks. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.
REUTERS RICS: .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, C.N, JPM.N, BAC.N, AXP.N, AIG.N, DIS.N, HD.N, GM.N, VZ.N, T.N, INTC.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPQ.N, IBM.N, UTX.N, CAT.N, GE.N, MMM.N, BA.N, KO.N, MCD.N, WMT.N, DD.N, PFE.N, MRK.N, CVX.N, XOM.N, PG.N, JNJ.N, AA.N
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA