Quarterly Jiseki + Indian Sectors

 
 

Early this year we mentioned that the one of the reasons Indian market continue to underperform is the quarterly Jiseki rankings. Most of the Indian sector indices were above 70. Even now after a few months, the rankings have just marginally changed. Most of Indian sector indices continues to be expensive compared to it’s peer. This was one of the reasons we selectively went short on Metals, Oil and suggested IT to be topping. We had no long idea among the top IT majors. This special issue looks at the top 10 Indian sectors. The aim is to answer the following questions?
 
1) Are NIFTY new lows possible?
2) Where and when is the Nifty going to bottom?
3) How does this situation change sectorally?
4) What are the levels?
5) What do the Jiseki cycle signals suggest?.
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Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.