Primary CYCLE shocks
Our work as market technician’s involves a few shocks. Some we give to our readers, and a few we face ourselves. These shocks what we give or get are job hazards. Now that the primary cycle is turning, there are some primary price targets that might appear preposterous for our various regional readers, but this is how we see things.
Emerging market currencies like Romanian EURRON and Indian Rupee could strengthen by more than 20-25% till Q3 2010. The latest update on Intermarket CYCLES carry the conventional time cycles and a pair performance cycle between DOW and S&P 500. The pair illustrates a performance cycle between DOW (blue chips) and S&P 500 (broad market). In stage 1,3,5 DOW outperforms S&P and in stage 2,4,6 S&P outperforms DOW. We have discussed broad market pairs with blue chips. There are few ways to look at these pairs. One is when broad market underperformance reaches an extreme against blue chips (1,3,5) and the second when blue chips underperformance reaches an extreme against broad market (2,4,5). Both cases suggest a bottom, but it’s when blue chips start to rise that we see the strongest part of the trend. Now that the blue chips are falling compared to the broad market, markets lack strength. The table illustrates our view.
Market bottoming unlike tops are more like ‘W’s than ‘V’s. This is why our view on OIL as a corrective remains preferred than otherwise. The OIL cycles (SLIDE 15) suggests another impending dip on OIL. OIL could dip into end of MAY early JUN before hitting primary bottom.
We have illustrated two time frames in the current CYCLES report, intermediate (multi week) and primary (multi month). Though on the intermediate term our LONG-GOLD, SHORT DOW continues to hold, the primary gold cycles still suggest a secular negativity on Gold. This is in sync with the primary up turn in cycles on emerging markets.
The intermediate multi week outlook on Global Indices remain murky. Dow Minor CYCLE is topping and even the primary CYCLE considers the ongoing up leg as a reprieve in an incomplete primary leg down. Barring NIKKEI most other global indices look weak and negative on the respective time frame.
Enjoy the latest INTERMARKET CYCLES.
Login to the members area to access the report.
Download the free report here.
INTERMARKET CYCLES covers global currency pair, global equity, emerging equity, and inter asset cycles. The product studies time cycle, asset outperformance and underperformance signals. The aim is to look at markets as a group and in isolation. This is a monthly perspective product that readers should use in conjunction with our other features like WAVES.GLOBAL , WAVES.INDIA, WAVES.FOREX, WAVES.METALS, WAVES.ENERGY, and other global features. Our economic and psychological world is well connected and cyclical. INTERMARKET CYCLES is a subject coined by us at Orpheus. The subject studies the asset linkages and the fixed periodicity between them. We look at the subject from three aspects. First from the sectoral aspect. As we redefine Equity sector rotation and reclassify global sectors into three broader sectors viz. Early Economic, Mid Economic and Late economic. We juxtapose these three broad sectors on the economic and business cycles. Second we look at subject from the 25-30 year Asset cycles. For example the 30 year Gold cycle and commodity cycle, which is inverse of the 30 year equity cycle or social prosperity cycle. Third we look at inter asset cycles between Gold and Oil, VIX and S&P, Technology and Blue Chips, Local Currency and numerous other asset pairs to look for asset outperformance and underperformance signals.
REUTERS RICS (METALS) – XAU=, XAG= (FOREX) EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR= (GLOBAL) .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, C.N, JPM.N, BAC.N, AXP.N, AIG.N, DIS.N, HD.N, GM.N, VZ.N, T.N, INTC.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPQ.N, IBM.N, UTX.N, CAT.N, GE.N, MMM.N, BA.N, KO.N, MCD.N, – WMT.N, DD.N, PFE.N, MRK.N, CVX.N, XOM.N, PG.N, JNJ.N, AA.N (ENERGY) BRT-, WTM- , .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N , IPNG , NG-P-CAL. (AGRO) COFSAN-4-NYC, SUG-DLY-ISA, .DJAIGCT, CCCI-NYC, CORN.L, C-US2Y-GULF,.SPGSCN, W-RJK-MLQ, .DJAIGWHTR (GREEN) – NEX, G3E.CO, EEN.PA, TEO.PA,.WOWAXPD,.GWE, HSNT.L,GAM, .SPGTCLEN, VWS.CO, FSLR.O, VIE.PA, ITT, .BIOX,ADM, BG, CSAN3.SA, .SUNIDX, QCEG.DE, 3402.T, 3401.T, CLIE.L
intermarketcycles1905091 DOWLOAD THE REPORT
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – UNITED KINGDOM
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS – USA