Oil vs. Dow

The OIL vs. DOW ratio line depicts OIL performance compared to DOW. The ratio line in Fig.1 suggests that OIL underperformed DOW from July 2008 till Dec 2008 after which there was an OIL reprieve as OIL moved up from a low of 34.8 to the current near 50 levels.

The ratio line is at 1 now. This means that OIL matches its performance with DOW. The forecast on either DOW or OIL is linked to what this ratio line would do? Will it move up back above 1 or is it going to turn back down? Performance cycles suggest that OIL could underperform DOW for more than the next few months. Only after which we should see a secular BULL on OIL compared to DOW.
Even individually, time oscillators suggest that the best of OIL for Q2 is over (Fig.2) and OIL could be headed down till MAY. Any leg up till 55 should be final before the turn down. This means that we continue to look at a large intermediate bottoming on OIL and not otherwise. We captured MINOR traded moves on RELIANCE, ONGC, VERBUND, CVX and NATGAS. Even on BRT we captured the MINOR C wave up. But we remain unconvinced of a secular up trend on OIL now.
We have carried the various ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases and the latest tracker.
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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH
WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.
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