OIL 2012 – The real hijack

MOVING SUB 100, PREPARING FOR 300
A recent conversation with an old friend on 11 July, went like this.
MP: How are things at your end? You ready to retire after making your billion? RL: Well I have not yet reached the billion dollar value, still struggling to hit that number and then quit.  Meanwhile oil has hijacked the gains so retirement has become doubtful.
The timing of this conversation was perfect. 30 Jun OIL hit  dollar 150 and 11 July it was still retesting the previous highs. Now prices have fallen till 112. Blaming Oil was easy. But whom will we blame when it moves to dollar 300. These high targets did not seem improbable at dollar 150 and will look incredulous sub 100, but then sentiment extremes are not always easy to visualize.
The right form of OIL illustrated on the right suggests a completed 3 circle primary wave to us with 4 and 5 primary circle still to come. This means we are indeed heading for a 2015 retirement hijacking. Both Oil and markets give a second chance.
The 3 circle primary took 6 years. It took about a year each for wave 1 and 2 circle primary. This makes it an 8 year bull. From a decade cycle the bull is definitely exhausted. But from the 30 year commodity cycle the energy asset can easily extend till 2012. And if you take cycle translation into view prices could continue to push higher beyond 2015.
What does this mean? This means that after 4 circle primary wave pause, the final up leg higher should begin. This could take oil till dollar 300 and maybe higher.  Now the interesting question is the kind of formation the 4 primary leg would take. The classic extended one, or the sharp down. Elliott Alternation rule is in for a sideways action till Q1-Q2 2009. This could probably keep OIL in the primary log channel illustrated here. But in any case previous 3-4 intermediate supports easily point to a sub 100 target.
The timing for OIL fall could not have been better. Now with all the recession worries here and OIL inspired news on a new high, the commodity decides to surprise. But then that’s what market is all about, surprises. A potential fall till dollar 70 is another preposterous target that could happen sub 100.  Read THE OIL ROCKET published in May 2008 when we said the ROCKET up is unsustainable. Sub 100 would mean a drop of 50% from the historical top. This should be some reason for a red signal for OIL BULLS and green for Equity Bulls (WAVES.GLOBAL).
Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL