NIFTY primary view

The Indian market is in an intermediate correction down for nearly 40 weeks now. Prices are now testing psychological 5,000 levels. This is a key confluence support which brings us again to two possible scenarios:
The oversold daily and weekly RSI momentum suggests a completing correction which should not really break 5,000 and after which we could see a multi-month positivity on the market. Any bounce above current open gaps and mid channel resistances at 5,300 levels would further strengthen the positive view.
The alternate scenario, on the other hand, looks at an extending correction down, which could push lower till next confluence supports at 4,800-4,500 levels or even lower till 4,000. Sub 5,000 the alternate scenario strengthens.
The main sector indices are also at a key intermediate and primary support e.g. NSEBANK at 10,000 (slide 4) and CNXIT at 5,500 (slide 5). These structures also look like completing intermediate corrections down.
We illustrated here an anticipated and happened case on Sensex. The first chart depicts a projection made in February 2011 with two potential targets: 16,000 as a conservative one and 13,000 as an aggressive one. Prices are now approaching the conservative target at 16,000 which could turn into an important buy and accumulate point. In any case, we expect at least a subminor bounce from current supports before taking further shorts.
Enjoy the latest Alpha India Indices.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices. Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.