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5181 – A puissant barrier (Papa bear getting ready for a big howl)
The Couple of narrow trading range is suggestive of no real buying pressure near the clog of 5181. Again, yesterday we saw the level of 5181, acting as a strong blockage for the second time in the span of last 30 odd days, which has brought the possibility of double top into the picture. Nifty, which is facing the resistance of both weekly and daily upper Bollinger band, with weekly momentum cycle completely into the grip of the bears is showing signs of sluggishness, near 61.8% retracement level of the entire fall from the top of 6358. Going further, the two consecutive Dojis (the indecisive candles) on daily chart and that too near the strong hurdle of 5181 is again a sign of exhaustion. So this time the break of 20-DSMA (nailed at 5035) and 50-DEMA (nailed at 4950) will trigger the next round of selling, which every bear was dreaming of. In that scenario my alternate wave count (Bearish one) will take precedence over the preferred one. The hourly face of Nifty is also bearish as momentum cycles have already given a fresh sell triggers with reversal patterns being formed on intraday charts.