GOOD, BAD AND THE UGLY

The good part of this market is that we got the steepest two – week gain since 1938. The bad thing is that market needs hope to move up and not low valuations. The ugly thing is that throwing good money after bad is only going to make things uglier.
The best of MAR is behind us. In fact we think MAR CYCLE highs are here. And we should considerable our self lucky that the ‘up but topping view’ managed to eke out a best 70 year two week performance.
This is what we said on 16 MAR
“Markets moved up 12% from the 9 MAR lows and are back to NOV lows. On a minor basis the DOW looks overstretched, so will be not surprised if this week we see some retracement. But any serious top should not happen till end of MAR. We can call it an ‘Up but Topping’ situation. We have carried the anticipated and happened scenarios and the latest tracker.”
MAR cycle highs are an inch away and we will indeed be surprised if this leg up has steam to push beyond 8,000. If it does manage to cross it, which seems doubtful, DOW madness may push up till 8,300 before the correction begins.
But with Global Indices also topping, we don’t think DOW will have much support from its global peers. And these days EMERGING MARKET peers lead their developed peers. So the bad situation is only good till the time things turn ugly yet again.
We are still looking at a lower low in JUN. So for us any upside potential comes after a dip now till mid MAY, after which lower low in JUN is when the real primary turn should begin. We will keep you posted.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.GLOBAL
WAVES.GLOBAL – WAVES.GLB is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product covers all the DOW 30 stocks. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.
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