Goldman vs. Jiseki

To attempt forecasting a top stock like MSFT and then admitting that the forecast went awry needs courage. Well, Goldman was brave, as covered by Bloomberg on 18 Dec 2015.
Strangely 12 months before Goldman gave a SELL on the stock on 4/11/2013, Jiseki ranking was at 24. Jiseki is a ranking indicator that measures relative performance on a scale of 0 to 100. If the stock is relatively at the bottom of the ranking, the score is a 0 and if the stock is a top relative performer, the ranking score is 100.
So a score of 24 meant that Goldman was anticipating negativity on MSFT, when it was already in the pit. Why would Goldman do that? Maybe it expected a relative underperformer like MSFT to continue to stay weak? There is nothing wrong in anticipating a continuing weakness, as something that is weak can continue to stay weak. But then don’t we expect something special from a Goldman forecast, like anticipating a peak or a trough? Well as we all know great forecasts rarely happen and when they do they are alone and are ignored.
Fortunately, for us, Jiseki did it again. Starting April 2012, the indicator suggested that MSFT was emerging out of its value status (0-20) and could become a relative outperformer for the next 24-36 months. This is what happened. MSFT moved from 32 to 57 end of last year, up nearly 80%.
The Jiseki rankings pushed near 80 on Feb 2015. The technology company stayed positive and still is above 80. Momentum does not last as long as Value. The Value to Growth Jiseki cycle has completed its journey from 20 to 80, now in its fourth year. It would be interesting to track Jiseki.