Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make more sense of information. Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher […]
First it was Armajaro buying 7% of cocoa market, then it was Bloomberg news about rallying Sugar as ships clogged Brazil ports and then we had wheat surge backed by worst 100 year drought. We at Orpheus are looking at Inflationary era ahead and disagree with the idea that low interest rate era is here […]
It is very tough to understand cyclicality, as it goes against conventional belief, which comes from the society. Hence seeing cyclicality, appreciating it, comprehending it needs some courage to see what everyone can’t see. What if you are wrong? What if the society is right? What if….? This is another reason why Gold should underperform […]
Trading Long Zinc, Short Coffee or say Long Industrial Metals index and Short Carbon Emissions index could evoke a shock among the pair trading community, leave aside the simple investor. How can you mix coffee with zinc? “These are pairs, they are not for me, I am a single stock (asset) absolute performance go getter”. […]
Human beings may not be nice and dumb Herbert A Simon got the Nobel Prize for economics in 1978 for his research on decision making process within economic organizations. Herbert is considered one of the most influential social scientist of 20th century. A study of history of behavioral finance also cites his 1955 paper “A […]
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Sunspots The excitement cycles 24 May 2010 A J Tchijevsky’s excitement cycles reopens the debate of Time. The success in the new age is a lot different from what we experienced 11 years back. The shy public which needed market research surveys to bring out feedback is keener to offer […]
Don’t confuse sentiment extremities with a secular under-performance for the Gulf region. Performance is cyclical and nothing performs better than the worst performer. Objectively understanding an opinion is hard, having an opinion harder, and challenging an established opinion hardest. Ruchir Sharma, the head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management wrote ‘trouble in the […]
The following was a question asked by a fellow market technician. Is India starting a Kondratieff Winter ? INDIA’S KONDRATIEFF WAVE CYCLE : 25 FEB 2010 – I have posted my most detailed analysis of where I think India stands on the Kondratieff wave cycle. This article will enrich you with the basics of this […]
The Contrian Cioban The contrarian ‘Cioban'(Romanian for Shephard). We bring to an end a very interesting aspect on contrary opinion today. Next week we will discuss on how to invest on the basis of contrary opinion. To sum up some previous write ups, we discussed how market inflates and make bubbles and some historical […]
AEIBOR (Interbank rates) suggest further downside on yields and bond outperformance. Historical Case There was a time when society was credit less, as usury laws discouraged lending and penalty for rates higher than the legal maximum was death. Then of course, times changed and interest rates were let free. However, despite the perceived control on interest […]