Behavioural finance used mean reversion cycles to challenge classical economics, but preferred to explain it through sentiment and not ‘time’. We can’t expect Markowitz and Fama to open up this fissure and fight back. They have to accept that classical economics failed to answer more than a few questions and accept that the finance […]
I was working on a presentation this week and the time allocated to me was 18 minutes. It’s always tough to simplify the message. I allocated some additional hours to fine-tune my message. It was not a coincidence that I wanted to write on intertemporal choices (current decisions impacting options available in future), was speaking […]
If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks. A US military official in response to Hacker attacks on Pentagon Much of our pleasure and pain in life stem from expectations of future and these pleasure and pains have profound implications for behavior. Stanley Jevons We feel […]
The name Friday comes from the Old English Frīġedæġ, meaning the “day of Frige”. The same holds for Frīatag in Old High German, Freitag in Modern German and Vrijdag in Dutch. The idea of patterns and order is used conveniently by behavioural finance to challenge conventional economics. But the question of why that order exists […]
The first opinion is that markets can never crack. We say, “This is India, the crack is a correction, every dip is an accumulation.” This is followed by “Oh! it does not stop. What to do now? There are political, corporate rumours. We have already seen bad news. There are a few negative events like […]
Societal expressions will remain extraordinary and extreme cyclically. Abraham Lincoln was careful about what he wrote. But it was his duel of 1842 with James Shields that really brought that cautious change. Dueling was a normal practice to challenge and sort out differences. Lincoln apologized and managed to avoid a potential disaster. America could have […]
When Tim Flanagan jokes about assassinating Julian Assange on prime time tv, it not only comes across as a bad joke but also suggests the importance the Calgary Professor gives to insider information. Stock markets have addressed the insider information decades back, judgments have already been passed (Jamie Olis reduced sentence in 2006) and even […]
The society promotes food absolutism as it is the profitable business, and what’s profitable may not always be value driven. Interest rate cycles suggest that everyone living today will come to see today as a time of great opportunities and not a crisis. The Time the interest rates hit zero (near zero), the start of […]
High mathematics downplays intuition as unsystematic, emotional, and unaccountable. However, the more we move into time systems and try to mechanize entries and exits, we realize that we can never eliminate risk. Execution is about intuition. At the heart of things we are all investors, whether some of us are overdoing it with housewife calls […]
The global monetary system needs a financial and technological innovation. Peter Bernstein looked at gold from a historical aspect in his book ‘The Power of Gold, the history of an obsession’. From the start of Egyptian era in 3100 BC when Pharaoh’s ruled to the Roman Empire, the author illustrated how gold slowly and steadily […]