In 1827, Robert Brown saw a random movement of pollen particles in water. This was called Brownian motion, also the drunkard’s walk. In 1902, Einstein proved this and confirmed the presence of atoms and molecules. This was 100 years after the atomic theory was proposed by John Dalton and was the first attempt to reconcile wave and […]
In 1827, Robert Brown saw a random movement of pollen particles in water. This was called Brownian motion, also the drunkard’s walk. In 1902, Einstein proved this and confirmed the presence of atoms and molecules. This was 100 years after the atomic theory was proposed by John Dalton and was the first attempt to reconcile wave and […]
The rupee scare Scare is an emotional need Like we need soap operas, we need things to be scared of. Emotions are why we live, so if we don’t have greed and fear, we might not feel alive. This is true with markets. How we interpret indicators (a currency) could also be linked with how […]
Free lunch was a tradition once common in saloons in the US. It was a sales enticement that offered a meal at no cost in order to attract customers and build patronage. So popular was the scheme that a complete meal was offered with a 15 cents drink and people used to throng to such saloons, a few […]
The Elephant Is there everything wrong with this statement? If you want to create wealth, you need to let your winners run and you have to cut your losers short. Unfortunately, this statement is also an “elephant” modern finance is trying to comprehend. A few questions that can challenge this adage; what qualifies as a […]
Because seasonality persists, it registers in social memory. Calendar seasonalities are the most significant. There has been a lot of work on the almanac tendencies, starting from the Yale Hirsch November-April cycles to January effect, and October declines (September 8, 2008). For us, seasonalities are an essential starting point to understanding the element of market […]
On 3 April 2013 I had a meeting with Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at the S&P. Air Canada had lost my bags and I did not want to cancel the meeting. So, I decided to carry on, reaching the 44th floor, 55 Water Street, New York, despite my informal look, a Zara pullover, and […]
I don’t see gamblers around here in New York. I wonder where behavioural finance saw them and how they coined the term ‘gambler’s fallacy’. At the Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium, it seemed business as usual. The panel was figuring out the future of markets and the future of technical analysis. Andrew Lo, professor of Finance, MIT, […]
The dragon year lived up to its billing. Most major equity markets rose, even as they trailed a massive rally in Greek and Portuguese bonds – S&P CNX Nifty ended 28% higher in 2012, well ahead of 13% increase in S&P 500 and FTSE Eurofirst 300, and 15% increase in MSCI Emerging Markets. Our investors […]
The societal fear with markets as we talked last time is also associated with system leverage. Society still feels the post-crisis aftershocks, so much that we keep anticipating a succession of crashes. We made our case of a bullish market last time, this time, we address a more structural issue of how to tame the […]