Just like always it is the buyer’s psychology that gets all the attention, and when it’s time to study what goes on in the seller’s mind we have all crash and crisis news all over. There are more reasons why the thoughts of a seller rarely hit the headlines. First a buyer is more emotional […]
Though we stayed out of political forecasting, predicting the elections, we know a few who predicted it right. Bill Meridian of CYCLES RESEARCH was on top of events with his Obama call. Now of course one can analyze why it happened. Maybe the anti incumbent factor, or the age factor, but market technicians saw it […]
Just over a year and a half ago we mentioned in one of our articles ‘Revisiting Caritas’ the crash of Capital markets in reference to Romania, one of the four hottest emerging markets in the world. We accept that the meltdown was more brutal and faster than we thought. And we did not expect companies […]
The first person I heard keeping a track of DOW on a day to day basis was a business school senior of mine from the class of 1997. Little did I know then that in barely ten years, the world will get glued to DOW daily and intraday movements. And nothing will matter more than where the Dow was headed. We are in the age of DOW, and DOW psychology rules. The grip is so powerful that an emerging market broker in Romania after a market update to his client starts talking about what the client is interested in most, the bailout meeting. The respective client will be missing the UEFA CHAMPIONSHIP match between CFR CLUJ and CHELSEA to watch the bailout meeting at home.
Valuation, though a subjective matter, has many elements of objectivity. In the year 1934 Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd published their book on Security Analysis that was precursor to many work in this field of finance. This was followed by ‘The Theory of Investment Value’ in the year 1938 by John Burr Williams. While […]
Accepting that we are cycle blind is a step forward to understanding economic uncertainties that surround us. Just like it takes 10 years to become a glassmith, for a global analyst, it takes 10 years to witness the Juglar recession and cycle truth.
Warren Buffet calls it calculated, Ivan Boesky (1987 Wall Street Arbitrageur) said its good, Catholicism considers it one among the top seven sins and environmentalists may call it a disease. Greed means different things to different people. And speculation though considered the foundation stone of the capitalist society, in its extreme form, greed, can bring […]
Understanding Biases can not only help an investor refine his investment strategy but also help time markets. The current short bias in the market gives us cues whether NIFTY BANK will collapse, or will push up in Q3. Predisposition and anticipation. The last time we mentioned Matthew McConaughey was when we borrowed FOOL’s GOLD from […]
I first read Nassim Taleb’s story on the virtue of buying cheap options in 2000. It was a tough time for an option believer in those days in India. Out of my basement stint for an e-broker, which was struggling under startup pressures with “nobody seems to be interested in futures” statement emailed to me, […]
Intermarket cycles can change the way we look at asset cycles. Starting from 30 year mirroring commodity and equity cycles, inflation and deflation cycles, the subject also redefines Sam Stovall’s sector rotation structure giving new insights about the world order ahead. It was not just investment gurus, but philosophers and painters who talked about simplicity […]