Performance cyclicality places Abu Dhabi as a relative buy among global equity indices along with an outperforming outlook for energy assets and volatility. Behavioral finance suggests that though forecasting ability is a myth, extreme losers tend to outperform. Indirectly behavioral finance like Gauss addresses the order in randomness. Invariably there is a certain pattern that […]
Relative performance line between the Commodity Index (CRB) and Global Bonds can indicate whether the time ahead is inflationary or not. The primary case (Fig 1.) illustrates that Bonds have outperformed CRB and are now at historical extreme of more than a decade. There has been a relentless rise in global bonds, but that has […]
Source: Wikipedia, Illustration of the Cineorama balloon simulation, at the 1900 Paris Exposition Inflation or deflation? 22 Dec 2010 Why does a society find it so tough to comprehend whether the future is inflationary or deflationary? Inflation is when cash loses value and deflation are when cash has all the value. Now, what’s losing value? Cash […]
Real estate sometimes is considered as an inflation hedge. Real estate has shown a connection with interest rates. Realty is also considered counter cyclical. It moves opposite to the business cycle. When the cycle is up real estate underperforms and vice versa. There are few rules in markets. And if there is a rule, it […]
The attention is on gold now that prices have made a weekly negative candle and has weekly RSI turn below 70. This presents technicians with a few challenges. First is to identify whether the reversal is for real. Second is to establish till where the reversal can last in terms of price objectives. Third is […]
Historical highs are very tempting buy points. Can this best time for Gold bulls be the worst entry point? If you ask market players to compare physical gold and simple arithmetical relative performance, what do you think investors would choose? Yes, definitely gold. When it comes to gold, we can short all sanity and go […]
Just like everything else, Gold prices are also exponential in nature and hence prone to a potential exhaustion. There is a page dedicated to the Euler’s number in the Math book by Dr. Clifford Pickover. The Euler’s number is possibly the most important number is mathematics. Although pi is more familiar to the lay […]
First published on 13 Nov 2006 Did you know that the price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too. As in different market environments, the value of Gold is perceived differently than Silver. Gold is perceived as an important crisis commodity. As fear replaces confidence, […]
The 1980s high was 150, talking about a 200 dollar target is much beyond the euro-dollar parity. What could be a few reasons a target beyond previous high at 150 may start assuming some probability? First: Dollar Index has made an average 15 year cycles starting 1970’s. A bottoming cycle in 2008 at least suggests […]