I first read Nassim Taleb’s story on the virtue of buying cheap options in 2000. It was a tough time for an option believer in those days in India. Out of my basement stint for an e-broker, which was struggling under startup pressures with “nobody seems to be interested in futures” statement emailed to me, […]
Intermarket cycles can change the way we look at asset cycles. Starting from 30 year mirroring commodity and equity cycles, inflation and deflation cycles, the subject also redefines Sam Stovall’s sector rotation structure giving new insights about the world order ahead. It was not just investment gurus, but philosophers and painters who talked about simplicity […]
Nothing can rise exponentially, even if it’s OIL. The asset’s exponential rise is more an indication of an ending trend and not vice versa. We don’t have any chilly warning about OIL heading to dollar 200, like many in OPEC believe. Does OPEC really know? The axiom linked with the 40 dollar plus OIL, as […]
THE STORY OF HOW GOLD FOOLED RECESSION. DID IT? We are not in times of mess. We are in times of unprecedented mess. Not because people have lost a lot of money, but because a loss is messy, loss of jobs, loss of a house, loss of a client, loss of purchasing parity, loss of […]
Intermarket relationships between metals can not only give cues about the economic cycle but also lead the start of a global equity bear market. The last time we discussed Gold in Dec 07, it was at dollar 800. Starting 2008 it completed it’s leg up to 1000 and is now ruling at 930. While Gold […]
A free float index of 30 stocks XTR -30 FREE FLOAT can not be constructed just from BVB stocks. We need to combine the RASDAQ and BVB offering. And since there was no available broad market index, which we could just rehash and present the XTR – 30, we got to work on the XTR […]
XTR 21 is market cap and fundamental weighted index. And to make it more replicable (tradable) we have studied the underlying free float for the market, to introduce the benchmarks FREE FLOAT version. Moreover the current statistics do suggest that XTR 21 could better its performance with a free float review. However, since this will […]
In probability theory and statistics, correlation indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables. This statistical parameter can not only help in stock selection but also create structured products based on market neutralizing. Suggesting a hedging strategy, a week before market fell more than 8% was nothing short of timing. […]
The Coffee God has woken up and he has decided to punish coffee lovers. The bean is set to rise for more than a few years to prices which not many of us can relate too. Cycles and Fractals are a part of nature and date back before everything. Fractals of population were discovered 200 […]
It might look strange, but though the problems are more in America, it’s the Romanian markets that feel the heat. One of the reasons emerging markets like Romania are more volatile is because markets lack the knowledge of risk management. We are ideally speaking still a “LONG ONLY” market. We don’t have mechanisms to short […]