Barclays, Aviva and City

This is what we said on 13 Apr 2011
Citi has become one of the worst performers (among Global 1000) of the last 24 month bull rally, it deserves another look. Our Jiseki performance rankings suggest that Citi is still among the bottom 20 percentile of performance over a quarter. Though the Jiseki cycles are not yet positive RSI support at 40 suggest that any fall in the stock should see buying support coming in. When a financial major suggests accumulation on an intermediate degree, it means that we are still in a continued bull market and any dip down should be intermediate in nature. We have illustrated both the Dow and Citi charts in the case here. Interpreting Citi price structure is the challenge, the Citi itself, never lies.
If the markets are connected, one should be able to understand the market structure by looking at a market component. Putting simply this means the market structure of a specific sector should suggest the direction of the broad market. Was this not the similar thought which Charles Dow mentioned in the Dow Theory? How different is the DOW Theory approach where we could (can) understand the DOW Industrials by looking at the DOW transports from understand the state of the bull market by studying a few financial majors.
Today we look at another two London financial majors, Barclays and Aviva. We also have revisited CITI. And guess what? Though CITI is 20% lower from where we left it in April, it still is above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels from 2009 lows.
Barclays has also moved back above 0.618 Fibonacci levels and is ready to test a multiyear trendline resistance. A break above 250 would confirm positivity. If these correctives look unclear and dirty, we have Aviva with a clear corrective a-b-c structure and 0,618 Fibonacci support. Even if we are looking at a large complex corrective, above 300 the price structure suggests higher. Now when three top financials fail the break previous lows and show resilience how can we ignore the Bull. And before we rest our case, let’s not forget to review Jiseki cycles for BARCLAYS and AVIVA. The cycles are bottoming and positive.
The latest ALPHA also carries a relative intermarket case between UK worst stocks, carries the running portfolio components for our passive UK index, Ranking of worst UK components, the passive UK Mean Reversion Jiseki Index, Elliott counts on top global Indices and minor Elliott Case on Indian Nifty.
Our Mean Reversion Jiskei Index on UK is built from UK 100 components. We select the worst losers from UK 100 to allocate. Our Index has outperformed the FTSE 30 by 32%. Every week we will update a regional Index.
You can also download the report from our Reuters Store
Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.
Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.
Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities
Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.