We are in divergent times. A part of Europe is on the football field watching the Euro cup, while another part is protesting on the streets. I don’t know if Thomas Friedman would have seen it coming. Despite his vision of virtues linked with flatness, the world has somewhere descended into a vicious un-flatness. Not […]
If you are investor, it makes more sense to simplify a market indicator, which suggests to buy, hold or close. Today we discuss another simple yet powerful indicator. It is the Moving Average (MA) crossover. MA is an average of previous prices. The indicator is used to emphasize the direction of a trend and […]
We are happy to introduce Jiseki Cycles. This much awaited service will provide weekly analysis on Jiseki Cycles for selected sub-groups. Today we are illustrating the Jiseki Cycles on the Sensex 30 components Jiseki cycles. The universe contains 1000 international assets including the BSE 500 components. Choosing the Universe is an important exercise for Jiseki. Because a […]
Even if Assocham tells the industry to stop crying BEAR, it may not work. India’s 6% growth suggests relative outperformance vs. the 2% global growth. Market participants just don’t understand relative performance. However the very reason markets work is that 80% are always trapped in illusions and as behavioural finance says “biases”. And it’s only […]
Everything diverges. This includes the technology sector. The divergence is between intra and inter market basis. We have spent some time discussing the inter market divergence between CNXIT and the rest of the market (The CNXIT high). The respective articles illustrated how Infosys and TCS were top rankers and were set to underperform. We talked […]
According to conventional knowledge, “The 200-day moving average is a popular, quantified, long-term trend indicator. Markets trading above the 200-day moving average tend to be in longer term uptrends. Markets trading below the 200-day moving average tend to be in longer term downtrends.” Even if we assume this as universal truth that works, the American […]
The doomed outlier A friend took me out for coffee and gifted me Gladwell’s Outlier at the 2009 bottom. “This is dedicated to your doomed outlier”. During those murky times, the negative outliers were moving to positive polarity (worst stocks were becoming potential outperformers). Three years later and many outliers later, Gladwell’s lucid narrative on […]
Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam. Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.
INR has made a new high. This means a new bout of weakness on the Indian Rupee. The question is whether this move is an impulse up or is it still an extreme prone to reversal. There are a few reasons why INR could be in a counter trend that is ready for reversal. 1) […]
Victor Niederhoffer, published an article that sought to establish whether days with news of significant world events corresponded to days that saw big price movements. He tabulated all very large headlines in The New York Times from 1950-1966. Out of the 432 significant world event days, 78 (18 per cent) showed big price increases and […]