Technically Speaking – July 2012
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING – JULY 2012
Mukul Pal
India 30 Review and the Fundamental Filter
INDIA 30 ORMI © 06 July 2012 …India 30 Review and the Fundamental Filter In the current review of the INDIA 30, we have updated the running signals with current prices as of 6 July open. The Index has pushed up marginally. 26 signals are in profit while 4 are negative. Apart from setting up […]
Tragedy of Commons
Elinor Ostrom died recently. Her work on the tragedy of the commons earned her the Nobel Prize. The tragedy of the commons is a term coined by scientist Garrett Hardin in 1968, describing what can happen in groups when individuals act in their own best self-interests and ignore what’s best for the whole group. A […]
Sensex 30 Levels
Primary supports and resistances can decide the price direction. Barring Reliance none of components are below Dec 2011 lows. This suggests that negative sentiment is unjustified. Above this 19 of the 30 Sensex components are clearly above primary supports. This also confirms our view that irrespective of the last leg down (or not), we are […]
Monthly Key Reversal
Though a key reversal is found on High-Low-Close formation bars across time frames, it attains more significance when we look for it on a monthly time frame. And just like any other large reversal patterns, location is quite important for a KR. The KR formation is a bit rare. But then more rare a reversal […]
The Fundamental Filter
Food and Personal Products – Risk Metrics .also introducing the Fundamental Filter Though a fundamental filter adds value to a filtering process for stock selection, fundamental data lacks history. Many of the fundamental data points are released quarterly by the company. There is little data history fundamentalists can use to statistically measure a sector or […]
Remembering the 1990's
Markets are natural beings, this is why patterns and market structure repeat. The ongoing structure on Nifty from 2009 has a stark similarity to the market structure from 1996 to 2003. Now this is conventional pattern watching much different from machine learning, but if the similarity is to be believed we are in for […]
Sensex Pair 30 – Risk Metrics
On 14 June 2012 we introduced the Jiseki Cycles for Sensex 30, on 20 June we published risk metrics on the Indian Banking sector and on 21 Jun we carried an Indian Sector Special. Today we introduce a new web service called Sensex Pair 30. This service looks at the dynamics of all Sensex components […]
The Vicious Forecast
It took me a long time to learn that instruments and forecasts don’t make money, risk management does. If you are in the capital markets, forecasting is paid work, a job, a vocation. Predictions are all over the place. What’s a prediction? Euro will die or Nifty will reach 8,000 or Gold will rise are all predictions. “That new Tom Cruise […]
The EURO Nifty
There are many techniques used to understand market patterns. Over the weeks we have used trend lines, momentum, moving averages, Fibonacci, Candlesticks etc. This week we are using something rarely used by market technicians. This technique involves redenomination of an asset in a different currency. Europe is a trading partner for India and looking at […]