An Integrated View

Mukul Pal ·
Numeric Ranking suggests that top performers AUD, EUR and CHF should soon become candidates for under performance while CAD which has been amongst the worst performer could become an out performer. This is in line with what Rieki has also been indicating with a topping pattern in AUD, EUR and CHF and bottoming pattern in CAD.
Last week we looked at Reiki for cross currency and identified four trades – Short AUD and CHF and Long INR and  CAD. The Short CHF and Long CAD is reinforced by the price structure of CAD/CHF itself which is forming a ending diagonal pattern.
We have relooked at the price structure of AUD/USD with Rieki confirming the new high. While we have relabeled it as an impulse, it could be the termination ending diagonal impulse pattern. This keeps our topping view valid with immediate negative performance implications.
This week we are carrying the numeric ranking histogram. For an intermediate period, the best performers (strengthening currencies) make it to the top of the table and vice versa. The ranking also places AUD/USD as the top performer. And since performance is cyclical, it is the top ranker, which offers the best shorting opportunity. There is no bigger gain than shorting at a top.  This integrated view with numeric ranking, Reiki and price structure  completes our picture confirming our short AUD and CHF and long CAD and INR strategies.
JPY continued to edge lower and now with Rieki too pointing lower we could witness a minor leg lower. However JPY Reiki is reaching a support  zone indicating prices should soon bottom.
The non confirmation between EUR and GBP together with Rieki failing to confirm the recent upmove continues to point towards a topping case in both the pairs.
Enjoy the latest Waves Forex.


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti covers Forex in her weekly columns.
Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.
WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=
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