ALPHA ENERGY: Chevron moves up in rankings

What does it mean if a stock nears top ranking among its peers, like Chevron is doing now among the top 11 energy and utility assets in the world? (The stock moved up a place higher from last week and is at the second spot now). It means that Chevron’s best performance is behind and not very far in future the energy major should start underperforming the rest of its peers. We carried Long Gazprom, Short Chevron case last time. This time the pair performance cycle Chevron – Verbund is in the spotlight. Chevron is a DOW 30 blue chip and Verbund is a Utility major from Austria. The pair performance cycle has reached a top and should turn lower. This means Long Verbund – Short Chevron is a pair to watch. According to us the idea of performance is cyclical, which means that the best performer will underperform in the future and vice versa. We have carried comparative numeric ranking between energy companies and energy indices. The rankings include companies from India, America, Austria, Russia, Romania. IPNG, the natural gas index is the top performer and potentially least on allocation for us. While Russian Gazprom still is the worst performer over the quarter and remains potentially the best regional stock to allocate. Apart from the absolute rankings the latest ALPHA.ENERGY illustrates performance cycles among energy companies. There are other interesting trends that one can observe. Gazprom should outperform Chevron, VERB and XLE. IPNG should underperform XLE, while NATGAS should outperform XLE (SPDR). Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ENERGY.



ALPHA is a pair trading, long only – short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
ASSETS COVERED : Natural Gas, Gazprom, Verb, OMV, Reliance, ONGC (India), XLE (SPDR), Chevron (USA), Exxon (USA) , Petrom (Romania)
*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.
Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.
Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver?  Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.
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