73% ACCURACY on Romania!!!

Though prices have failed to bounce from OCTOBER 2008 lows, the respective calendar lows continue to stand firm on BETFI. The bottom formation is now nearly 3 months old and even if there is another impending leg down, we continue to see current levels as a classical multi month lows than otherwise.
It’s keeping up this unequivocal view, we present to you the annual issue of WAVES.ROM accuracy report. We at Orpheus remain in the endeavor of measuring probabilities. But what has assisted us more than probabilities are the rules. Our readers are well aware of the our ‘TOP IS HERE’ comments on BETFI at 90,000. The slide was repeated for more than 20 days repeating the ‘TOP’ word before the current 90% collapse happened. Rules remain more important then perception, as human psychology remains flawed and error prone. Whether, it’s the need for news, which invariably comes late or it’s the need for blaming it on global markets, loss aversion, or the uncertainty bias, till we follow rules and a system, trading or investing will continue to cause us more pain than gain.
Nathaniel Hawthorne, a famous American novelist once said, “From principles is derived probability, but truth or certainty is obtained only from facts.” And the fact is that we have delivered accuracy with ‘stupid patterns’, as a conventionalist immortalized the study of patterns once. This is the second year in a row we have crossed 70% accuracy for BETFI. This means 70% of the time we were on the right side of the intermediate trend.
If we have to detail out something that we did get wrong, it was the extent of collapse. Classical Elliott points out to a 90% collapse in CYCLE II waves. We ignored this and starting looking at the bottom too early at 61.8% and 78.6% collapse. What kept us on the trend still was our flexibility to accept that price supports were not coming in and bounce backs were weak, and that we were wrong in anticipating a REVERSAL too early.
WAVES.ROM studies intermediate and minor BETFI trends. In 2008 we made 18 intermediate and 21 minor trend forecasts. We have measured accuracy on the intermediate forecasts, always keeping in mind the levels along with the trends. It’s the levels that show how accurate we are. The market’s total actual absolute move was 297% and we have captured 217%. The largest actual move on BETFI was 78%. The average actual move was 29% and we captured 19%. The 73% accuracy for WAVES.ROM is also similar to what we delivered on INDIA (WAVES.INDIA 74%).
Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM ACCURACY REPORT 2008.
ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH
WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.
REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX
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