DOLLAR VS OIL VS NATGAS

A trend has five legs. This impulse gives direction to the asset. Five leg also completes trends. How do we know which five legs are completing a trend and which impulses are ending trend. Now Elliotticians might have answers to these questions, but using performance cycles not only trends and counter trends can become more clear, but we can see the larger unequivocal intermarket picture.
Now Dollar Index, Brent and Natural Gas seem to be trending in five wave structures. Markets tend to surprise, after the 4 wave sideways market action, when traders and investors are stuck in sideways action and patience testing times, the fifth leg surprises. Brent is also near its 200 Day moving average, the very reason a surprise push up can not be ruled out. However, the overall structure remains topping and gapping (SLIDE3). Unlike the minor view, the larger primary cycles suggest that the trend for OIL has turned up for a few years. Any dip down now from an intermediate top should be a three legged structure, which should not head down to new lows on Oil. XLE has a similar impulse up like Brent.
On the Oil equity side we see further upside. All of CVX, XOM, VERBUND suggest higher prices. This could be owing to the performance cycle between Oil and Oil based equity. How do performance cycles work? There are only three ways that performance cycles can work. Outperformer rises while underperformer falls, outperformer stops falling while underperformer falls more, outperformer falls while underperformer crashes. The performance cycles between Dollar Index and Brent suggest that there is further upside on Brent left after which the cycle should reverse leading to a possible fall on Brent and rise on dollar index.
The market might be surprised with Reliance results, but performance cycles were already negative on Reliance against ONGC for more than a few weeks already. The Natural Gas performance cycle is also bottoming on an intermediate basis. We have carried the performance tracker update above. On a minor basis the spot Nat gas continues to outperform Brent. We have also enclosed a few other pairs from their recent turn levels. Did you ever think Reliance – ONGC pair could deliver 10% return? Well this is a surprise worth understanding.
Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL
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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH
WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.
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