Averages are not only ubiquitous but they are part of popular psyche Just like we don’t need to understand inflation for it to trouble us, we really don’t need to be able to spell statistics for it to rule us. The realisation of an average lifespan could have pushed many saints towards the spiritual path, […]
The dragon year lived up to its billing. Most major equity markets rose, even as they trailed a massive rally in Greek and Portuguese bonds – S&P CNX Nifty ended 28% higher in 2012, well ahead of 13% increase in S&P 500 and FTSE Eurofirst 300, and 15% increase in MSCI Emerging Markets. Our investors […]
One way to look at Sensex is to look at the top 3 stocks of Sensex in term of market capitalization. If the top 3 stocks are showing resilience than the Sensex itself should show resilience. Mind it we are talking about the weightage here not necessarily outperformance or underperformance. Guess what? Out of the […]
It is not the first time, but on many prior occasions, I have been accused of getting too extreme with forecasts. My running forecasts of Dow 20,000, Nifty 10,000, oil $300, gold $10,000 and Indian Rupee-USD sub-40 could also be considered extreme for the next 36 months. With all the objectivity that we talk about and all the objectivity that investors […]
INR is in a multi year correction up. This means that the real trend is still pointing lower down back to sub 40 levels. Our preferred view on INR suggests that the correction is over and the probability of another up leg till 60 is low. Hence the current view of a preferred strengthening on […]
JISEKI CYCLES The risk metrics are driven by our Jiseki Time cycles, which are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset […]
Inflation and metals I have been cabbing in Bucharest these days. It was a good opportunity to take some on-ground survey interviews and practise my Romanian. My questions to the cabbies were the following. How’s business? Why is it bad? Who is to blame? Could it be inflation and not the politicians? The answers, surprisingly, concluded with […]
The latest ORMI UK 20 © Index update carries the equity curve from February 2002 till date. The Orpheus Risk Management Index (ORMI) is up 1659.16 % since 2002. Download the latest ORMI UK 20 To download the latest report please visit our Reuters Store For knowing more about ORMI Indices mail us for details or contact a […]
The societal fear with markets as we talked last time is also associated with system leverage. Society still feels the post-crisis aftershocks, so much that we keep anticipating a succession of crashes. We made our case of a bullish market last time, this time, we address a more structural issue of how to tame the […]
Recently, we were asked “whether it was time finally to get out of the 12-month holding on dollar?” Dollar did not move for 12 months. There was another query regarding gold, “Should I sell it?” Two synchronous sell queries linked with two essential and interconnected assets was not a coincidence. The emotional disturbance of holding […]