•Orpheus Risk Management Indices are based on the Extreme Reversion methodology. The Idea redefines 1902 Mean Reversion, redefines 1950 Behavioral finance, looks at market as a dynamical system (Chaos) and marries value with momentum. •The idea works across assets, regions, styles, risk profiles and strategies. Orpheus is a global alternative research company building data analytics, […]
Indexing: The Orpheus Risk Management Index (ORMI) is based on proprietary algorithm. The indices values that are disseminated today are broadly based on market capitalization methodology. Market capitalization methodology has been challenged globally for a few broad reasons. 1) As an asset strengthens it is given more weight 2) As an asset weakens it is given lesser […]
A few questions. First: How would you judge a BUY signal on United Spirits given on May 2 @ United Spirits 2292 with a target of 2304? Please excuse us but we wonder what the national business paper is encouraging here, market volume, ad volume, or simple speculation. Second: isn’t it too late for UNITED […]
On 3 April 2013 I had a meeting with Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at the S&P. Air Canada had lost my bags and I did not want to cancel the meeting. So, I decided to carry on, reaching the 44th floor, 55 Water Street, New York, despite my informal look, a Zara pullover, and […]
A key reversal bar has a high workability because of a few reasons. First; because the pattern is not that common. Second; because the pattern comes after a previous trend. Third; because it confirms a change of trend. And when we see such a confirmation on a monthly basis (April is almost over) the probability […]
Now that DOW has hit our anticipated targets (Dow @ 14,000), it could be a good time for review. DOW is above the Bollinger band extreme and above key resistance levels at 14,000. So any ‘Sell in May and Go away’ not only has to first give a breakdown support confirmation, but the breakout on […]
Well! there will never be just one controversy theory about what hit Apple (AAPL). But there will never be a controversy theory about who predicted the Apple top. Because stocks like Apple are a one-way street and forecasting a top for the stock that was going to be the first trillion dollar company is an impossible […]
Do you know of a stock that moved up 750% from Oct 2008 lows in India? Do you know of an open source system that captured 572% of this multi-year move? I am on a road show in North America for Orpheus and this is what one financial advisor told me, “If you are able […]
I really don’t know why Richard Thaler chose this headline for a research paper. Many other behavioural finance academic papers also capture attention. “Can the markets add and subtract?”; “The winner’s curse”; “The gambler’s fallacy”, “Does the stock market overreact?” While the popularity of the subject has increased and behavioural biases have got so pervasive […]
Markets don’t know how to weigh, allocate, measure, count, subtract or add prices. We did not say that. Richard Thaler said it in 2003 “Can the markets add or subtract?” Though Lamont and Thaler were mentioning about failure of arbitrage to correct mispricing, I don’t think they would have thought that the violation of law […]