The doomed outlier A friend took me out for coffee and gifted me Gladwell’s Outlier at the 2009 bottom. “This is dedicated to your doomed outlier”. During those murky times, the negative outliers were moving to positive polarity (worst stocks were becoming potential outperformers). Three years later and many outliers later, Gladwell’s lucid narrative on […]
Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam. Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.
INR has made a new high. This means a new bout of weakness on the Indian Rupee. The question is whether this move is an impulse up or is it still an extreme prone to reversal. There are a few reasons why INR could be in a counter trend that is ready for reversal. 1) […]
Victor Niederhoffer, published an article that sought to establish whether days with news of significant world events corresponded to days that saw big price movements. He tabulated all very large headlines in The New York Times from 1950-1966. Out of the 432 significant world event days, 78 (18 per cent) showed big price increases and […]
Early this year we mentioned that the one of the reasons Indian market continue to underperform is the quarterly Jiseki rankings. Most of the Indian sector indices were above 70. Even now after a few months, the rankings have just marginally changed. Most of Indian sector indices continues to be expensive compared to […]
Rate of Change is an Oscillator. Oscillators are indicators that are designed to determine whether a market is “overbought” or “oversold.“ An oscillator is generally plotted at the bottom of a graph, below the price action. As the name implies, an oscillator is an indicator that goes back and forth within a range. “Overbought” […]
Now that Nifty is below 5,000 levels for the second consecutive week, we are revisiting some of the short ideas. Why did we select these five stocks? These are underperformers that should fall more than Nifty. The respective stocks have already given negative price confirmation. They are still above 60 percentile rankings and hence have […]
Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. […]
The most interesting part of our work is to think about a query and filter out ideas. And when I mean query, I mean just anything linked to a time series, be it technical, sentimental, fundamental or statistical. So what did we do today? We said let’s put a billion dollar filter and sort out […]
Any pattern assumes predictive power when it repeats, is cyclical. Another way to understand this is through buyer – seller psychology. Buyers can not be always in charge and vice versa. Even psychology itself is cyclical, patterns are connected to psychology. Today we look at a pattern called ‘the full stomach’. Candlestick theory states that […]