The last time we wrote on Gold was on 9 – Oct where we talked about the MCX GOLD Indicator. And how local Gold could have cues for international prices, as it failed to reach new highs while global spot prices continued to make new highs. The anticipated and esoteric Fibonacci confluence we mentioned that […]
Accuracy is good, accuracy all year long is very good. But how will you define accuracy, if an emerging market leading Index generates a 250% net displacement in 12 multi week minor trends and closes the year at a 10% net gain? Well you got to read our annual accuracy report 2007 for Romanian capital […]
There are long only funds for alternative energy, healthcare, environmental services, finance, micro finance and water mgmt. And there are funds shorting the non environmentalists something like long a solar energy stock and short a company selling coal fired generation equipment. Markets are changing the way we look at energy, the way we look at banking, the way we look at cars, the way we look at correlation and the way we look at equity. By the time nuclear energy companies list in the global exchanges, Uranium would go through the roof and by the time we look away from the rising Oil, John O Donnel, CEO Ausra might have changed the world with his solar mirrors. Wealth creation is easy if we come out of the extreme short termism and all that bottom up mirage.
These are the origins of the S-curve. S-curve fitting, a natural and fundamental approach to forecasting, is reliable with high confidence levels. Physicists have shown that everything in nature can be quantified, from matter to light. Spectacular consequences of putting natural law descriptions in a discrete form have been the subject of chaos and fractals. I had a chance to meet Theodore Modis, a physicist from Growth Dynamics Inc, recently in Vienna. Along with Alain Debecker, a mathematician from Lyon University, he wrote about the S-curve and the bridge between continuous and discrete formulations spanning 150 years of developments in mathematics. They also wrote about how it starts with Verhulst and finishes with Mandelbrot, intricately linking order with chaos. The paper also mention how chaos-like states can be expected before and after logistic growth ie historical picture is nothing but an alternation of logistic growth with periods of instability. The chaotic fluctuations belong to the end of a growth phase as much as to the beginning of the next one. A well established S-curve will point to the time when chaotic oscillations should be expected. What’s more interesting about this paper is that it sites the Kondratieff cycle (56 years) as a way to position growth periods.
Water, a key renewable resource, has just started a multi-year boom which should leave even oil behind. Throwing out the baby with the bath water is an idiom that has its origins on the monthly bathing ritual in Europe before the 16th century. The bath tubs were few and seniors of the house were the […]
Cash conservation becomes strategic, as the healthy disinflation era is challenged by rising food prices. “We learn from history that we do not learn from history,” these famous words of George Bernard Shaw are a befitting reality for mankind. These people he talked about also dabble in stocks and commodities. And a majority of them […]
Time magazine recently wrote a story on the human addiction. And out of the many addictions, to alcohol, sex and gambling, the write-up also mentioned coffee. And how there are withdrawal symptoms if you stop having your morning cuppa. I would have laughed about this addiction to coffee five years back, but today I don’t. […]
Information paralysis can be resolved by sentiment indicators which can not only predict but also time market turns. These two generic sounding terms—diffusion and sentiment—are going to redefine the forecasting business in times ahead. Diffusion might sound familiar to economists as it’s also an econometric technique. But omnipresent sentiment measurement or sentiment indices are not […]
There’s a lot of talk about how a currency affects the stock market and the economy. There is even literature available on the dollar and its beneficial effect on the Dow. A strengthening dollar is considered good for Dow components. The top 30 companies of the world have operations around the world and receivables in […]
Demand-supply dynamics are not only differentiating economics from finance but reshaping capital market research At a farewell party last night, we found that five of us had the same birthday, which was quite a coincidence as the gathering was small. There, a friend from Lebanon who is a senior techie at a Fortune 500 infrastructure […]